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Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet
Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots. A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC). Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea. When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust. However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:
Is Bitcoin money?
No. Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves: 1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own. As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get. You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there? 2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile. If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point: 3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away. For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast. On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad. One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy. If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due. Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.
BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in
Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense. Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run. See here Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well. Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money. Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand. Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control. It's also a national security risk... The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca. He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade. This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.
Currencies are based on trust
Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged? The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president. People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all. It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board. For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government." The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.
BTC is not gold
Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value. How do we know that? Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan. Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well. Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties: First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment. Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials. Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans. It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods. To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that. On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Means of Exchange: if people seriously start using BTC to buy pizzas, then this creates a real demand for the currency to accomplish the short-term exchanges. As we saw previously, I'm not personally sold on this one and it's currently a negligible fraction of overall demand.
Criminal uses: Probably the largest inbuilt advantage of BTC is that it's anonymous, and so a great way to launder money. Hacker gangs use BTC to demand ransom on cryptolocker type attacks because it's a shared way for an honest company to pay and for the criminals to receive money without going to jail.
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.
BTC is really risky
One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds. But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:
A critical software vulnerability is found in the BTC codebase, leading to a possible exploitation.
Xi Jinping decides he's had enough of rich people in China hiding their assets from him and bans BTC.
Some form of bank run takes hold for whatever reason. Because BTC wallets are uninsured, unlike regular banks, this compounds into a Black Tuesday style crash.
Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient
Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science. That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale. The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
BTC was estimated to use as much electricity as Belgium in 2019. It's hard to trace where the BTC mining comes from, but we can assume it has a huge carbon footprint.
A single transactions is necessarily expensive. A single transaction takes as much electricity as 800,000 VISA transactions, or watching 50,000 hours of youtube videos.
There is a large necessary tax on the transaction, since those checking the transaction extract a few BTC from it to be incentivized to do the work of checking it.
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
1)It is possible to change the code through a miner vote or a fork and change the total supply or anything. DASH did it : they reduced the total supply from 84M to 18.9M a few years ago. They could also increase it to 999 Trillions if they wanted to so that millions of DASH are mined every week. 2)You can also fork bitcoin anytime , start over from 0 and claim it's the real bitcoin. (BCH , BSV , BTG , LTC , BCD etc) 3)Why would you pay $10,000 for a digital collectible unit called BTC when you can use BCH or TRX or LTC .. you name it. They work just as fine and cost less. There is no rarity like in gold. 4)Think of any amount you hold in ethereum as a gift card to use smart contracts on the ETH blockchain. Ridiculous. You’d rather hold a wal mart gift card or even simply cash. 5)Private keys may be bruteforced as we speak. Quintillions entries a second. When they’ll have enough bitcoins under control , they could move them all at once instantly.(At least 45,000 ETH have been stolen this way for now through ethereum bandit)SHA 256 is too old , bitcoin is 10 years old , it is not secure enough , quantum computing could potentially break it. 6)And that’s if people don’t find a way to create an infinite amount of coins to sell on exchanges.. it happened with monero , stellar , bitcoin , zcash , zcoin , eos , etc.. proofs : “Bitcoin , Coindesk : “The Latest Bitcoin Bug Was So Bad, Developers Kept Its Full Details a Secret”an attacker could have actually used it to create new Bitcoin — above the 21 million hard-cap of coin creation — thereby inflating the supply and devaluing current bitcoins.” Stellar : “Stellar Inflation: Glitch Leads to 2.25 Billion Extra XLM Printed” Monero : “A bug in the Monero (XMR) wallet software that could enable fake deposits to exchanges has been recently brought to public attention through a Medium post” Zcoin : Forged coins were created, but not exceeding 1% of the circulating supply. We will release further details on exact numbers when Sigma is released. EOS : “Hackers Forge Billion EOS Coins to Steal Real Crypto From DEX “ Zcash : “Zcash Team Reveals It Fixed a Catastrophic Coin Counterfeiting Bug” etc.. 7)Segwit , and especially Lightning network is a very complex technology and it will inevitably have flaws , bugs , it will be exploited and people will lose money. That alone can cause bitcoin to drop very low levels. 8)Then miners may be losing millions so they will stop mining , blocks may be so slow , almost no transaction will come though , and bitcoin may not have enough time to reach the next difficulty adjustement. This is reffered to as a death spiral. Then every crypto even those with no mining involved may crash hard. 9)Many crypto wallets are unsafe and have already caused people to lose all their investment , including the infamous “parity wallet”. 10)It is NOT trustless. you have to trust the wallet you’re using is not just generating an address controlled by the developper , you have to trust the node the wallet connects to is an honest node , you have to trust a Rogue state or organization with enough computing power will not 51% attack the network. etc.. 11)Bitcoin is NOT deflationary. Bitcoins are created every blocks (roughly every 10 minutes) and you wil be dead by the time we reach the 21 million current hard cap. 12)Bitcoin price may artificially be inflated by Tether. 13)It’s an energy waste , an environmental catastrophy. 14)The only usecases are money laundering , tax evasion , gambling , buying on the dark net , evading sanctions and speculation. 15)Governments will ban it if it gets too big , and they have a big incentive to do so , not only for the obscure usecases but also because it threatens the stability of sovereign currencies. Trump could kill bitcoin with one tweet , force fiat exchanges to cease activity. 16)Most cryptos are scams , the rest are just crazy speculative casino investments. 17)It is pyramidal : early adopters intend to profit massively while last comers get crushed. That's not how money works. The overwhelming majority of crypto holders are buying it because they think they will be able to sell it to a higher price later. Money is supposed to be rather stable. That's why the best cryptocurrencies are USDT USDC etc.. 18)The very few stores accepting bitcoin always have the real price in the local currency , not in bitcoin. And prices like 0.00456329 BTC are ridiculous ! 19)About famous brokers listing bitcoin : they have to meet the demand in order to make money , it doesn't mean they approve it , some even short it (see interactive broker's CEO opinion on bitcoin) 20)People say cash is backed by nothing and losing value slowly , and yes it is very flawed , but there is a whole nation behind it , it's accepted everywhere , you can buy more things with it. 21)Everybody in crypto thinks that there will be a new bullrun and that then , they will sell. But because everybody thinks it will happen , it might not happen. The truth is past performance doesn’t indicate future performance and it is absolutely not guaranteed that there will ever be another bullrun. The markets are unpredictable. 22)Also BTC went from about $0.003 to the price it is today , so don’t think it’s cheap now. 23)There is no recourse if you’re scammed/hacked/made a mistake in the address etc. No chargebacks. But it might be possible to do a rollback (blockchain reorganization) to reverse some transactions. BSV did it. 24)In case of a financial crisis , the speculative assets would crash the most and bitcoin is far from being a non speculative safe heaven ; and governments might ban it to prevent fiat inflation to worsen. 25) Having to write down the private key somewhere or memorize it is a security flaw ! It’s insane to think a system like this will gain mass adoption. 26) The argument saying governments can not ban it because it is decentralized (like they banned drugs) doesn’t work for cryptos. First , drugs are much harder to find and much more expensive and unsafe because of the ban , and people are willing to take the risk because they like it. But if crypto is banned , value will drop too much , and if you can’t sell it for fiat without risking jail , goodluck to find a buyer. Fiat exchanges could close. Banks could terminate every crypto related bank account. And maybe then the mining death spiral would happen and kill all cryptos. 27) Crypto doesn’t exist. It’s like buying air. It’s just virtual collectibles generated by a code. Faguzzi, fugazzi, it’s a whazzie, it’s a whoozie.. it’s a.. fairy dust. It doesn’t exist. It’s never landed. It’s no matter, it’s not on the elemental chart. It… it’s not fucking real! 28) Most brilliant guys have come out and said Bitcoin was a scam or worthless. Including Bill Gates , Warren Buffet , The Wolf Of Wall Street… 29) Inflation is necessary for POW , BTC code will have to be changed to bypass the 21M cap or mining will die ! If BTC code is not changed to allow for miners to be paid reasonably , they will cease mining when the bitcoin block reward gets too low.Even monero understood it ,the code will have to be changed to allow for an infinite bitcoin supply (devaluating all current bitcoins) or the hash will decrease and the security of bitcoin will decrease dramatically and be 51% attacked 30) Don’t mix up blockchain and cryptos. Even blockchain is overrated. But when you hear this or that company is going blockchain , it doesn’t mean they support cryptocurrencies. 31) Craig Wright had a bitcoin mining company with Dave Kleinman (he died) and on january 1 2020 he claims he will be able to access the 1.1M BTC/BCH/BTG from the mining trust. He may or may not dump them on the market , he also said BTC had a fatal flaw and that by 2019 there will be no more BTC. 32) Hacks in cryptos are very common and usually massive. Billions of dollars in crypto have been stolen in the last 6 years. In may 2019 Binance was hacked and lost 7,000 BTC (and it’s far from being the biggest crypto hack). 33) Bitcoin was first. It's an ancient technology. Newer blockchains have privacy, smart contracts, distributed apps and more.Bitcoin is our future? Was the Model T the future of the automobile? (John Mc Afee) 34) IOTA investiguating stolen funds on mainnet. IOTA shuts down the whole network to deal with trinity wallet attack. 35) Compared to bitcoin other cryptos work just as fine and don't waste so much energy. 36 ) Everytime miners disagree on the updates it will create another version of bitcoin : problem of governance and legitimacy. 37) Cryptos are only legitimate if they act as a credit for a redeemable asset like USDT or gold backed coins. While the native language of the writter is not english , I think you get the point and it doesn't make it any less relevant.
I've been trading now for probably 7 years. I got really into it at the tail end of High School, when I would trade low value stocks up based exclusively on the "buy low, sell high strategy" that I had learned about through cursory research. At the time I was trading maybe only $50-$100 here and there, just to test the waters. My DD consisted of one thing: looking at the chart for 5 minutes and deciding whether or not it was a good idea to buy based on what the little squiggly line looked like (these were the days before Robinhood back when there were more than 3 settings for TA). I made a few good plays... so good, in fact, that I doubled and in some cases tripled the small amount I wagered. This wasn't overnight either—it often took a few weeks or months to happen—but needless to say it was pennies. But at that point I realized the potential: I was hooked. All I had to do was click a button (again, before Robinhood, so yes I actually "clicked") and my money would double in a few weeks! I didn't have to do anything but sit back, relax, and watch my $$ multiply. Obviously, this was more fluke than trend, otherwise I wouldn't be writing this post. As I continued, I began to realize, albeit slowly, how complicated the superstructures of trading really are. It's a far-cry from being as simple as "click buy, click sell." You have things like commissions to consider (remember those?), stocks to choose, investment strategies to decide on, risk profiling and diversification, moral guidance for investments, algo trading bots/software, just to name a few. Not to mention the most significant variable: the market is alive. For every trade you make, there is someone you are trading with. Someone on the other side who has the exact opposite strategy as you have in that moment. Someone you're constantly fighting to win. I'm generally an adaptable, hardworking, idealistic person (I now realize these are probably the worst traits for a successful investor to have). It's been my experience that the more you put into something, the more you get out of it. It's worked with all of the real things I interact with, so naturally I let these behaviors lead my investment experience. I would place a trade and, thinking that the more I watched the markets the more responsible and hard working was being, would be glued to the screen from open to close. Further, every time I learned something new about the market I tried to adapt my strategy to cope. I realized that it's much easier to make a $15 commission back on a $1000 investment than a $100 investment. Especially if I'm investing in something more volatile, right? Well, this quickly led me to pink slips, and from there into obscure, baseless "investments" in now mostly defunct companies. But I would always cling onto the hope of landing a good trade, which sometimes happened. Mostly, though, I kept losing money. I realized that my strategy was failing, so I decided to stop investing in stocks. It was time to move onto something more productive, like making an honest living. So I worked for a few years, and then my life transformed. My dad died, quite suddenly, of a heart attack. I still lived with him and performed CPR, but we still lost him. The trauma of that evening broke my brain, and I felt that the only way to fix how I felt was to make something equally as life changing happen, except good. So I went to the only thing I knew--trading, which quickly transformed into even more speculative crypto trading. It happened to coincide with the crypto boom in 2017, which threw my portfolio in a crack-crazed blitz to the moon. It was happening! I finally had figured it out! My life was going to turn around and I was going to retire on a mattress stuffed with bitcoin. And then as quickly as it was there, it disappeared. Largely because crypto is a baseless and extremely complicated & volatile asset that no one really understands. But also because I kept chasing. I kept chasing the feeling of gaining; knowing that my approach had led me to success, I kept at it to find more success. Then came Robinhood and Options trading. You get the story by now. The combination of my ambition, idealism, and broken heart led me to lose almost all of the money I've made in the last 7 years. I'm down $130k. I wish I had a more heroic story to tell, because engaging the markets truly felt heroic—especially on the 100%+ days. But at the end of the day, I spent $130k to lose 7 years of my life. And my dad isn't coming back no matter how much money I make. The markets are a beast of our own making that represent human psychology and behavior on a macro scale and almost always emphasize the negative elements of human capacity. We have created a phenomenon that enslaves us in isolation and addicts us to hope, yet remains completely separate from the real world. It's effectively a sink for our emotions, resources, and time; one where we are encouraged to live by our worst tendencies in a Wolf of Wall Street-esque hedonistic dystopia. Any wealth that comes from the markets just builds on the current financial inequities we are victim to--enabling the uber rich to get richer. So, I'm done. Time to spend my time and energy doing something real. TL;DR: Lost money. Don't lose money like me.
The power players of consumer finance in the 21st century will be crypto-native companies who build with blockchain technology at their core.
The crypto landscape is still nascent. We’re still very much in the fragmented, unbundled phase of the industry lifecycle. Beyond what Genesis Block is doing, there are signs of other companies slowly starting to bundle financial services into what could be an all-in-one bank replacement. So the key question that this series hopes to answer:
Which crypto-native company will successfully become the bank of the future?
We obviously think Genesis Block is well-positioned to win. But we certainly aren’t the only game in town. In this series, we’ll be doing an analysis of who is most capable of thwarting our efforts. We’ll look at categories like crypto exchanges, crypto wallets, centralized lending & borrowing services, and crypto debit card companies. Each category will have its own dedicated post. Today we’re analyzing big crypto exchanges. The two companies we’ll focus on today are Coinbase (biggest American exchange) and Binance (biggest global exchange). They are the top two exchanges in terms of Bitcoin trading volume. They are in pole position to winning this market — they have a huge existing userbase and strong financial resources. Will Coinbase or Binance become the bank of the future? Can their early success propel them to winning the broader consumer finance market? Is their growth too far ahead for anyone else to catch up? Let’s dive in. https://preview.redd.it/lau4hevpm7f51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c5de1ba497199f36aa194e5809bd86e5ab533d8
The most formidable exchange on the global stage is Binance (Crunchbase). All signs suggest they have significantly more users and a stronger balance sheet than Coinbase. No other exchange is executing as aggressively and relentlessly as Binance is. The cadence at which they are shipping and launching new products is nothing short of impressive. As Tushar Jain from Multicoin argues, Binance is Blitzscaling. Here are some of the products that they’ve launched in the last 18 months. Only a few are announced but still pre-launch.
Binance is well-positioned to become the crypto-powered, all-in-one, bundled solution for financial services. They already have so many of the pieces. But the key question is:
Can they create a cohesive & united product experience?
Binance is strong, but they do have a few major weaknesses that could slow them down.
Traders & Speculators Binance is currently very geared for speculators, traders, and financial professionals. Their bread-and-butter is trading (spot, margin, options, futures). Their UI is littered with depth charts, order books, candlesticks, and other financial concepts that are beyond the reach of most normal consumers. Their product today is not at all tailored for the broader consumer market. Given Binance’s popularity and strength among the pro audience, it’s unlikely that they will dumb down or simplify their product any time soon. That would jeopardize their core business. Binance will likely need an entirely new product/brand to go beyond the pro user crowd. That will take time (or an acquisition). So the question remains, is Binance even interested in the broader consumer market? Or will they continue to focus on their core product, the one-stop-shop for pro crypto traders?
Controversies & Hot Water Binance has had a number of controversies. No one seems to know where they are based — so what regulatory agencies can hold them accountable? Last year, some sensitive, private user data got leaked. When they announced their debit card program, they had to remove mentions of Visa quickly after. And though the “police raid” story proved to be untrue, there are still a lot of questions about what happened with their Shanghai office shut down (where there is smoke, there is fire). If any company has had a “move fast and break things” attitude, it is Binance. That attitude has served them well so far but as they try to do business in more regulated countries like America, this will make their road much more difficult — especially in the consumer market where trust takes a long time to earn, but can be destroyed in an instant. This is perhaps why the Binance US product is an empty shell when compared to their main global product.
Disjointed Product Experience Because Binance has so many different teams launching so many different services, their core product is increasingly feeling disjointed and disconnected. Many of the new features are sloppily integrated with each other. There’s no cohesive product experience. This is one of the downsides of executing and shipping at their relentless pace. For example, users don’t have a single wallet that shows their balances. Depending on if the user wants to do spot trading, margin, futures, or savings… the user needs to constantly be transferring their assets from one wallet to another. It’s not a unified, frictionless, simple user experience. This is one major downside of the “move fast and break things” approach.
BNB token Binance raised $15M in a 2017 ICO by selling their $BNB token. The current market cap of $BNB is worth more than $2.6B. Financially this token has served them well. However, given how BNB works (for example, their token burn), there are a lot of open questions as to how BNB will be treated with US security laws. Their Binance US product so far is treading very lightly with its use of BNB. Their token could become a liability for Binance as it enters more regulated markets. Whether the crypto community likes it or not, until regulators get caught up and understand the power of decentralized technology, tokens will still be a regulatory burden — especially for anything that touches consumers.
Binance Chain & Smart Contract Platform Binance is launching its own smart contract platform soon. Based on compatibility choices, they have their sights aimed at the Ethereum developer community. It’s unclear how easy it’ll be to convince developers to move to Binance chain. Most of the current developer energy and momentum around smart contracts is with Ethereum. Because Binance now has their own horse in the race, it’s unlikely they will ever decide to leverage Ethereum’s DeFi protocols. This could likely be a major strategic mistake — and hubris that goes a step too far. Binance will be pushing and promoting protocols on their own platform. The major risk of being all-in on their own platform is that they miss having a seat on the Ethereum rocket ship — specifically the growth of DeFi use-cases and the enormous value that can be unlocked. Integrating with Ethereum’s protocols would be either admitting defeat of their own platform or competing directly against themselves.
The crypto-native company that I believe is more likely to become the bank of the future is Coinbase (crunchbase). Their dominance in America could serve as a springboard to winning the West (Binance has a stronger foothold in Asia). Coinbase has more than 30M users. Their exchange business is a money-printing machine. They have a solid reputation as it relates to compliance and working with regulators. Their CEO is a longtime member of the crypto community. They are rumored to be going public soon.
Let’s look at what makes them strong and a likely contender for winning the broader consumer finance market.
Different Audience, Different Experience Coinbase has been smart to create a unique product experience for each audience — the pro speculator crowd and the common retail user. Their simple consumer version is at Coinbase.com. That’s the default. Their product for the more sophisticated traders and speculators is at Coinbase Pro (formerly GDAX). Unlike Binance, Coinbase can slowly build out the bank of the future for the broad consumer market while still having a home for their hardcore crypto traders. They aren’t afraid to have different experiences for different audiences.
Brand & Design Coinbase has a strong product design team. Their brand is capable of going beyond the male-dominated crypto audience. Their product is clean and simple — much more consumer-friendly than Binance. It’s clear they spend a lot of time thinking about their user experience. Interacting directly with crypto can sometimes be rough and raw (especially for n00bs). When I was at Mainframe we hosted a panel about Crypto UX challenges at the DevCon4 Dapp Awards. Connie Yang (Head of Design at Coinbase) was on the panel. She was impressive. Some of their design philosophies will bode well as they push to reach the broader consumer finance market.
Early Signs of Bundling Though Coinbase has nowhere near as many products & services as Binance, they are slowly starting to add more financial services that may appeal to the broader market. They are now letting depositors earn interest on USDC (also DAI & Tezos). In the UK they are piloting a debit card. Users can now invest in crypto with dollar-cost-averaging. It’s not much, but it’s a start. You can start to see hints of a more bundled solution around financial services.
Let’s now look at some things that could hold them back.
Slow Cadence In the fast-paced world of crypto, and especially when compared to Binance, Coinbase does not ship very many new products very often. This is perhaps their greatest weakness. Smaller, more nimble startups may run circles around them. They were smart to launch Coinbase Ventures where tey invest in early-stage startups. They can now keep an ear to the ground on innovation. Perhaps their cadence is normal for a company of their size — but the Binance pace creates quite the contrast.
Institutional Focus As a company, we are a Coinbase client. We love their institutional offering. It’s clear they’ve been investing a lot in this area. A recent Coinbase blog post made it clear that this has been a focus: “Over the past 12 months, Coinbase has been laser-focused on building out the types of features and services that our institutional customers need.” Their Tagomi acquisition only re-enforced this focus. Perhaps this is why their consumer product has felt so neglected. They’ve been heavily investing in their institutional services since May 2018. For a company that’s getting very close to an IPO, it makes sense that they’d focus on areas that present strong revenue opportunities — as they do with institutional clients. Even for big companies like Coinbase, it’s hard to have a split focus. If they are “laser-focused” on the institutional audience, it’s unlikely they’ll be launching any major consumer products anytime soon.
Coinbase Wrap Up
At Genesis Block, we‘re proud to be working with Coinbase. They are a fantastic company. However, I don’t believe that they’ll succeed in building their own product for the broader consumer finance market. While they have incredible design, there are no signs that they are focused on or capable of internally building this type of product. Similar to Binance, I think it’s far more likely that Coinbase acquires a promising young startup with strong growth.
Other US-based exchanges worth mentioning are Kraken, Gemini, and Bittrex. So far we’ve seen very few signs that any of them will aggressively attack broader consumer finance. Most are going in the way of Binance — listing more assets and adding more pro tools like margin and futures trading. And many, like Coinbase, are trying to attract more institutional customers. For example, Gemini with their custody product.
Coinbase and Binance have huge war chests and massive reach. For that alone, they should always be considered threats to Genesis Block. However, their products are very, very different than the product we’re building. And their approach is very different as well. They are trying to educate and onboard people into crypto. At Genesis Block, we believe the masses shouldn’t need to know or care about it. We did an entire series about this, Spreading Crypto. Most everyone needs banking — whether it be to borrow, spend, invest, earn interest, etc. Not everyone needs a crypto exchange. For non-crypto consumers (the mass market), the differences between a bank and a crypto exchange are immense. Companies like Binance and Coinbase make a lot of money on their crypto exchange business. It would be really difficult, gutsy, and risky for any of them to completely change their narrative, messaging, and product to focus on the broader consumer market. I don’t believe they would ever risk biting the hand that feeds them. In summary, as it relates to a digital bank aimed at the mass market, I believe both Coinbase and Binance are much more likely to acquire a startup in this space than they are to build it themselves. And I think they would want to keep the brand/product distinct and separate from their core crypto exchange business. So back to the original question, is Coinbase and Binance a threat to Genesis Block? Not really. Not today. But they could be, and for that, we want to stay close to them. ------ Other Ways to Consume Today's Episode:
The gray scale appears again. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has more than 400,000 holdings, setting a new high again. These positions are mainly US institutional investors. The growth potential of other investors is still great. After all, the number of speculators is still several orders of magnitude behind the number of people in any mainstream stock market in the world. The currency circle deserves our continued attention. At the same time, the founder of Grayscale said that next week, a large number of advertisements promoting Bitcoin and Ethereum will be placed on FOX, CNBC, MSNBC and FOX Buisiness, in order to make Bitcoin and Ethereum and other digital currency investments public. Obviously, after this wave of advertisements, funds will obviously flow in again, so the new funds will effectively support currency prices next week. The overall opportunity is greater than the risk, and the sustained high is the high probability market. Combining the weekly charts of Bitcoin and Ethereum, it is clear that the relay market is rising. In an upward trend, don't scare yourself every day. Once the cost advantage position is cancelled, it will be difficult to find a comfortable position in the future. I got in the car and the trend is good, so I should continue to sleep on my back. Bitcoin weekly (rising relay): Bitcoin: The probability of a sharp correction of Bitcoin is still low. The next 1-2 months should be in a stable period with low risk. At this time, Bitcoin will not bring huge wealth effects to everyone. Long-term investors should hold it patiently. The return is much higher than that of participating in the stock market. It is better to hold the spot and short short. ETH: Stronger than most mainstream, since there is no direct attack today, the high shock should continue for 1-2 days, and a new high will be reached after the shock. XRP: It is very weak. Although there is news that Ripple will cooperate with Bank of America, but with so many banks, it has nothing to do with currency prices. LTC: The trend is obviously weaker than most mainstream. I have said this dozens of times this year because there is no hype expected. BCH: The fork has not been specifically determined, so continue to link up. EOS: Linking the big pie, will follow up afterwards, but it is probably not very exciting. BSV: This wave is always weaker than his father's BCH. When will the volume increase in a single hour, then consider participating, otherwise the opportunity cost of holding positions will be too high. ZEC: High shrinkage callback, the trend has not changed, take it first. ADA: The new high should be coming soon. It is obviously strong recently. Hold the position first. TRX: The trend has not changed, hold. XMR: Anonymous classes are obviously weaker today, including dash, but the overall callback amount is not large, and will continue to rise after a few days of shock. IOTA: 2.0 is coming, and the enthusiasm for small currency speculation is relatively strong recently. You can pay attention to whether there will be an acceleration in the future. LINK: Stepped on the vent of the oracle and became the leader of the market. Recently, it has accelerated. The market value has surpassed Wright, ADA, and BSV to the sixth position. This acceleration inevitably means short-term risks. It is not recommended that everyone follow High, those holding positions can dump goods one by one. Zues Capital, an institution that shorted LINK, liquidated its position by 11 million US dollars. Investors who did not follow the trend, no matter who they were, would be crushed by the market. Use this as a lesson.
Gavin Andresen, Chief research officer at Bitcoin Foundation, expressed the opinion that traders speculate at the price of digital currencies, not paying attention to the essence of the underlying technologies. He compared the graphs of the IOTA and ZCash rates over the past year and noted that he does not see significant differences between them. At the same time, from February 12 to March 10, no transactions were made on the IOTA network due to the suspension of the wallet that was attacked. Andresen said that he could not determine from the price chart which of the projects was experiencing problems. “Probably nobody is thinking, and it is all day traders and bots,” the scientist concluded.
Bitcoin Reaches New All-Time High Hash Rate Just A Week Before Halving
Some Crypto Analysts Consider The Increased Hash Rate To Affect Bitcoin’s Price Positively, As “Price Follows Hashrate” The largest cryptocurrency to date, Bitcoin, is preparing for its third halving, scheduled at block 690,000, or around May 14. Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners are putting even greater push for validating transactions, which is often referred to as a bullish sign. The amount of computer power needed to validate a transaction on Bitcoin’s blockchain peaked with a new all-time high on May 3. Crypto speculators consider the halving event as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s price to explode in the months after the reward cut. Crypto analysis company Glassnode posted a chart on Twitter, marking the bullish exponential curve of hashrate activity. Traders and enthusiasts, who believe in the “price follows hashrate” maxima quickly showed their enthusiasm about the peak. Max Keiser, for example, shared a chart from Bitcoin.com, showing his bullish stance on the future price of Bitcoin. Source: Glassnode The correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the hashrate is still not confirmed, but there are some historical hints that such correlation may exist. However, if Bitcoin’s price increases, miners get a bigger reward for mining a block. The price increase leads to more miners joining the race, which increases hashrate as well. For instance, in September 2018, just moments before the crypto winter, Bitcoin’s network had 56 ExHash-per-second (EH/s) with price per one BTC roughly at $6,500. During the following three months, Bitcoin’s network hashrate fell to as low as 31 EH/s, with a price per BTC around the $4,000 mark. However, the thesis that more miners are entering the computing pool when Bitcoin is approaching its halving may not be entirely accurate. The halving procedure cuts down the reward per mined block in half. Small and mid-sized miners and mining farms may be forced to shut down operations, as they might not clear their costs for operating the rigs. Some experts believe the hashrate push could be a last “attack” towards making a profit before the reward cut. Meanwhile, other crypto experts consider the spike to be because of the possible price increase anticipation. The CFO of Boston Trading Co. Jeremy Britton explained that with the increasing scarcity for mining precious metals (like Gold, for example), its price increases. The same principle may be applied for Bitcoin, also. “When Bitcoin’s price crashed in 2019, its price did not drop below $3,000, because miners didn’t want to sell on loss. The expenses for mining a single block on Bitcoin’s network are around $3,000, without considering the costs for equipment and the Internet”, Britton stated. The next halving, scheduled for May 14, would further increase the costs per mining a BTC block. “The next possible floor for Bitcoin’s price is around $6,000 because miners won’t agree to sell on loss”, Britton concluded. Pricewise, Bitcoin failed to overcome and settle above $9,000, as the weekend rally broke above the psychological barrier, but was quickly corrected to trade at $8,719.97 currently. The hashrate peak, however, pushed trading volumes up from May 3 with over $8 billion.
A quick note to investors that believe the intrinsic value of bitcoin is 0 because they can't do a DCF on it: this isn't the place to argue with me about it. I suggest you read a bit more about what it actually is (hint: not a currency). I've defended its value in plenty of other posts on this sub. It's a $40+ billion market, so at least a few people agree with me. I welcome you to short the crypto of your choice if you think it's worth nothing. This is a post for folks that believe that cryptocurrencies have at least some discernible value and are considering investing in them.
If we have a strength, it is in recognizing when we are operating well within our circle of competence and when we are approaching the perimeter. – Warren Buffett
Given the tripling of the cryptocurrency market cap in the last few months and the 3- to 10-fold increases in virtually every major altcoin, cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and of course Bitcoin have been getting a stunning amount of attention in the press and on this subreddit recently. If you follow the cryptocurrency world closely, you know that there have been a huge amount of dubious ICOs (initial coin offerings) on the market recently. It's an explosive time in crypto. It's also a frustrating time for many long term bitcoiners and crypto fans, because we're faced with a barrage of questions from outsiders who see the returns and want to buy in to the "next big thing" and make a quick buck. This is a warning to those people. Everyone is a genius is a rising market. It's hard to go wrong these days in crypto. Even coins of dubious merit like Ripple, Dogecoin, Stellar, NEM were pumped 5 times without any fundamental change. Speculators/investors have thrown money at crypto indiscriminately and efficient markets have 100% broken down. The altcoin pump right now is roughly comparable to the Dot Com crisis of the early 2000s.
New tech promises to change the world
Investors jump in on hype and promises
A surge of IPOs (ICOs) occurs to capitalize on this
"Greater fool" traders pile in, thinking they can make money even if the underlying is unsound
Analysts claim "this time is different" while seasoned old hands refuse to participate
Tech is proven not to be as developed as everyone thinks, market tanks
Select few decent companies survive, all the trash is destroyed
Tech eventually fulfills expectations, 10 years later, but none of the investors from the early days make money on it
However, canny (and skeptical) investors can still make money on crypto, as cryptocurrencies are inevitable, and will continue to expand and proliferate, even when the altcoin crash comes. Something to realize first of all is that the crypto market is heterogeneous. It has straightforward cryptocurrencies (bitcoin, litecoin, dash, monero), smart-contract cryptos (ethereum, ethereum classic) and a whole bunch of crypto tokens that follow dedicated platforms (golem, augur, steem). Not mentioned are ripple and stellar because they aren't really cryptocurrencies at all. The investing theses for all of these categories is radically different. The measure of success for a currency or store of value is adoption, merchant use, low volatility, a large network, and real world acceptance as something worth owning. Bitcoin has this right now, which is why it's more than 50% of the ecosystem, and none of its competitors are even close. Monero, Zcash, and Dash are a special case in that they try and make transactions anonymous and privacy, allowing for use cases on the darknet markets, for instance. The tech underlying bitcoin is essentially sound, although it is having a scalability crisis, which you should read about. It can't right now serve as a currency which will buy you a cup of coffee - the transaction fees are too high. However if you want to send $200,000 from Mexico to Indonesia or China to the Philippines, you can do it within 20 minutes, and with fees of a few dollars. And if you want to store your wealth in a vault that is totally secure, and cannot be debased by a central bank, bitcoin is a good bet. This is highly relevant to folks in India that just had cash abolished, to Venezuelans, to Argentines, to Cypriots, to Nigerians, anywhere local currencies are weak and volatile. The potential value of a competing cryptocurrency lies in whether it can improve materially on bitcoin, whether it means incorporating off-chain scaling (segwit with litecoin), making it more private and fungible (monero), automating governance (decred), and so on. Then there are cryptoassets that incorporate smart contracts. These – ethereum and its derivatives – exploded when the SEC denied the Bitcoin ETF back in march and bitcoiners got worried and started diversifying. This is the market segment that is highly risky, even by crypto standards, in my opinion. Ethereum is a protocol that allows contracts to self-enforce. Programming power to run the contracts is paid for with ethereum. Two parties agree to a contract, and it then self-executes. It's secured by a decentralized computing network of ethereum miners, so the contracts cannot be shut down by a government or corporation. It's pretty clever. Last year, a $150+ million contract was drawn up with ethereum, which would act like a venture capital fund, picking good investments just based on the votes of the token holders. This was called a Decentralized Autonomous Organization, and it was hacked before it could do anything. Well, it was exploited based on the code and so the exploit was totally "fair" given that the contract was meant to be inevitable, once agreed to. However, the creators of Ethereum didn't like the idea of losing $50 million, so they decided to collectively agree to amend the rules of the protocol itself (violating "Code is Law"), and jump onto a new one, which they would also call Ethereum, although it was really Ethereum 2.0. Some people got upset by this, because they thought that immutability and not arbitrarily rolling back the code was more important than some investors losing money because of poorly written code. They created Ethereum Classic, which is the original Ethereum chain. This wasn't what the Ethereum 2.0 folks thought would happen, but it did happen, so there are two competing Ethereum chains now. Eventually, lots of decentralized apps were funded, via tokensales. A development team would say: "we're going to use ethereum to create a decentralized cloud computing/AI/prediction/gambling/timestamping/social media network." And then investors would buy the tokens, expecting that eventually the dev team would deliver, and the tokens would be in demand, since they would be required to use the network. It's a bit like buying in-game-currency when the game is announced, anticipating that the game would be wildly popular and you'd be able to sell it on later at a profit or acquire it cheaply to buy in-game items later on. However, many of us think that the promises are a bit extravagant, and that investors in these ICOs are probably going to lose money. The incentives aren't well aligned. Founders can just not deliver and run off with the money, and there's no regulatory body to enforce that. And for Ethereum more broadly, many people are worried that the turing-completeness of the language will mean it will face serious threats and unforeseeable hacks, like with the DAO. Finally, Ethereum has increased from around $20 to $90 in a matter of months, which raises the question of whether a) the market realized its true value or b) it was pumped on speculation. There's a huge set of unknowns with a smart contract currency, and virtually none of the promised dapps are up and running right now, and the ones that are haven't really attracted large userbases or delivered. This is because the tech is in its infancy, and the developers are still learning how to use it properly. So we won't know if these sorts of decentralized networks are even possible to create on the timelines that investors are expecting. Therefore, ethereum investors buying it on the promise of the realization of this tech in the near future are almost guaranteed to be disappointed. Additionally, ethereum is making the switch to the largely untested Proof of Stake algorithm, which will change incentives that secure the network. This brings me to my key point: Stay within your circle of competence. You can grow your circle – slowly. Cryptoassets are almost impossibly complex to grasp with just a cursory look. Investing in them requires weeks of reading and a very skeptical view. The above was an introduction to cryptocurrencies, the different ones on offer, and why investing in ethereum is not the slam dunk everyone thinks it is. This portion of the post will tell you about the kind of due diligence you need to do if you want to invest, rather than speculate, in crypto. The first thing to mention is that passive investing in crypto has historically been a terrible strategy. Just buying bitcoin almost always outperformed. This was due to the poor set of altcoins, and the size of bitcoin's almost insurmountable network effect. This sort of changed in March and April when bitcoin's dominance went from 80% to ~50%, and it remains to be seen if this will persist or not. But the point is, buying the index is usually an awful strategy in crypto, particularly because there are so many truly awful projects out there. So what does it take to invest responsibly in cryptocurrencies? It requires at least a basic understanding of three disciplines: public-private key cryptography; programming, and how open-source projects function; and economics, particularly game theory and the quantity theory of money. This is why is is so difficult to apprehend easily: because very few people actually boast a sincere understanding of these three topics. I certainly don't. You need to be able to determine whether the tech is actually going anywhere, and whether the task the developers have set themselves is possible or realistic. You need to know how open source networks are governed, and which models strike the best balance between efficiency of decision-making and fair consensus. You need to be able to measure the inflation schedule of the cryptocurrency, and see whether your coins are going to inflated away. You need to be able to make plausible guesses about the potential market for the crypto and estimate future values. Note that the payoff structure is not equity-like. It's more like early stage venture capital, or buying loss-making biotech companies. Here's my checklist of questions to answer, ordered by importance:
Does the project offer a significant improvement over its nearest competitor, or a reasonable chance of success in its stated aim? Is there a demand for this project? Does it have a concise and reasonable goal? (Narrower goal: higher likelihood of success).
Is the development team competent? Are they committed to the coin? What's their track record? Is is an active dev team? Do they have a roadmap for the future? Are they transparent about goals?
How is the development team funded? Is the currency corporate-backed? Is the funding transparent? Was the coin significantly premined? (Usually bad) Are developers paid via iterative community project crowdfunding? (Usually good).
What is the governance structure of the currency? Who holds ultimate control over decisionmaking? How are decisions made? Are they transparent? Are mining/developer incentives aligned?
Does the asset have acceptance and use today? Does it have a functioning use case? If it doesn't, does it have a decent chance of being accepted?
Has the asset's "market cap" tripled or quintupled in the last few months? Was this based on any fundamental changes (new software releases, etc) or just speculation?
What are the transaction volumes like? (Hint: divide market cap by monthly averaged daily on-chain tx volume to find a consistent ratio) What's the ratio of on-chain transaction versus exchange speculation? Has price gone up independent of transaction volumes?
How long has the asset been around? Think of the Lindy effect. Older is usually better.
What's the community like? Is there censorship? Does it have an active subreddit? Do the developers answer questions? Are they accessible? How big is the github community? (Hint: you can divide market cap by github commits to find a comparable ratio).
Are you psychologically able to hold this coin in a 90% downturn? Is this a high conviction thesis or are you betting on being able to sell it to a greater fool?
How long did it take you to learn about investing in equities? Reading balance sheets, running DCF and DRI models, figuring out how to value a stock based on comparables? Years? How many mistakes did you make before you figured out how to be responsible? Cryptos are an asset class that is both radically different from anything that has existed before. They are also incredibly heterogeneous, as I argued above. It also leads to cultism – so bitcoiners generally take a dim view of ethereum, and vice versa. Monero fans generally don't like dash, and so on. You have to keep your mind open to understand new opportunities as they arise, and to stop yourself becoming too mentally invested in your project of choice. The vast majority of projects will fail within 5 years, so becoming overly certain of the success of one will probably devastate you. If you can stay balanced, stay honest about your crypto's chances of success and adoption, not get tunnel vision, and not take overly risky positions, you have a good chance of not losing everything. Remember the payoff structure. Heavily rightward skewed. A ton of cryptos earn no return and a select few earn an absurd (1,000-10,000x) return. None of this is necessary if you just want to invest randomly in one of the top ten cryptos. That's the strategy of 95% of investors today. Pick a coin and go. If it's not bitcoin, I can pretty much guarantee you'll lose money. The newer, the worse. I've not made an effort to convince you that cryptos have intrinsic value. If you've made it this far, you probably think they're worth something at least. However, they're probably not worth as much as the market is pricing them at right now. Especially not those in the ethereum family. I'm not going to tell you what to invest in, because that would defeat the purpose of this post. I'm telling you to do your due diligence before blindly buying a crypto. And that due diligence on ethereum is as complex and difficult as Tesla or Amazon DD. And that your skills in equity valuation are pretty much useless in this asset class. My circle of competence doesn't extend to options or lean pork futures, so I don't touch those. I suggest that until you really feel comfortable in crypto, you don't buy randomly. Summative thoughts:
Investing in crypto is hard
90% of people that invest at market peaks will lose money
You have to extremely skeptical and invest in high-conviction positions
Cryptos are exhibiting bubbly behavior right now, it's a pretty bad time to pick one out
Cryptos are nothing like equities but they do have real value
Cryptos are the future, but almost none of these coins will survive 10 years
The older the better
Governance is key
These are speculative positions, only invest what you can tolerate losing
You can make money investing in cryptos
Passively investing in cryptos doesn't work
It's a winner takes most market, there won't be 1 crypto that wins. There will be different cryptos for different use cases.
edit: deleted chart with probabilities of success because of subjectivity and oversimplification. edit2: I've been overwhelmed with PMs so bear with me. also, please forgive any spelling errors on this post. I wrote it in one frenzied sitting. edit3: I knew I would get a fair amount of resistance from ethereum investors (even though I attempted to keep my post as balanced as possible) but I was unprepared from the breathtaking volume of spam and diversity of attacks. One particular user has made 30 comments in this thread. I don't have a stake in ETC, period. The post is 3000 words long and most of it is about how to properly do your due diligence in a crypto. if ethereum fares poorly by standard due diligence metrics, then perhaps your issue is deeper than one post on /investing. final edit: there have been some broken-hearted ethereum fans very busy organizing brigades against this post, and attacking me personally, and so on. It's all very incovenient. I can tell that I struck a nerve. This post isn't really about ethereum - it's about how to do research in crypto, and why you can't expect to profit handsomely without that due diligence. I mentioned ethereum because there are 3 or 4 breathless posts on here a day about its stunning gains and whether it's worth investing in. My answer: read about it first, from a diverse set of sources. A final note: I do not own any ethereum classic, I have never owned ethereum classic. I brought it up because it is part of the ethereum story, and an example of what happens when you have a contested hard fork. I do hope that ethereum succeeds, I am just cautioning against over exuberance.
A new user sent me this to my inbox, its a description of the events after the fork, with a signed message at the bottom. I've gone through it once but its very late here in my timezone, have to go through it again tomorrow. I'm sure I'm not the the only receipient, but just in case pinging some people here. https://honest.cash/kiarahpromise/sigop-counting-4528 *** EDIT 2 *** Before you continue. From the Bitcoin whitepaper: " The system is secure as long as honest nodes collectively control more CPU power than any cooperating group of attacker nodes." *** EDIT *** Ok, I have slept over this. How big is the chance that these two events, the sigop tx spamming of the network and the intended theft of funds stuck in segwit by an unknown miner, were coordinated and not coincidential? I slept over this message and am wondering if that was one two-phased plan and even this message was planned (probably a bit different but it was adapted afterwards to the new situation, that's why the first half of it is such a mess to read) to spread fear after the two plans got foiled. The plan consisted of various Acts Act 1) Distract and spam the network with sigop transactions that exploit a bug to cause distraction and halt all BCH transaction volume. The mempool would become filled with unconfirmed transactions Act 2) When a patch is deployed, start your mining pool and mine the hell out of it to quickly create a legitimate block. They prepared the theft transactions and would hide them in the (predicted) massive mempool of unconfirmed transactions that would have been accumulated. They would mine a big block, everyone would be so happy that BCH works again, and devs would be busy looking for sigop transactions. Act 3) Hope that the chain gets locked in via checkpoint so the theft cannot be reverted Act 4) Leak to the media that plenty of BCH were stolen after the fork and the ABC client is so faulty it caused a halt of the network after the upgrade Act 5) Make a shitload of money by shorting BCH (there was news about a appearance of a big short position right after the fork) But the people who planned this attack have underestimated the awareness and speed of the BCH dev team. They were probably sure that Act 1 would take hours or even days so the mempool would be extremely bloated (maybe they speculated that everyone paniced and wanted to get out of BCH) and Act 2 would consequently be successful because no one would spot their theft transactions quick enough. But they didn't calculate that someone is working together with various BCH pools in precaution to prevent exactly this scenario (segwit theft) and even prepared transactions to move all locked coins back to their owners. Prohashings orphaned block was likely unpredicted collateral damage as Jonathan suggests below, because they were not involved in the plan of the two pools who prepared to return the segwit coins. I'm guessing that the pools did not expect a miner with an attacking theft block that early and had to decide quickly what to do when they spotted it. So now that both plans have been foiled, Plan B) is coming into place again. Guerrilla style fear mongering about how BCH is not decentralized. Spread this info secretly in the community with the proof in form of a signed message connected to the transactions. Of course, the attacker worked actually alone, attacked us for our own good, and will do so again, because the evil dictatorship devs have to be eradicated.... As an unwanted side effect of these events the BTC.top and BTC.com "partnership" has been exposed. So what do we do with this new revelation is a question that we probably have to discuss. They worked together with someone who wanted to return the segwit coins and avoided a theft. They used their combined hashing dominance to avoid a theft. I applaud them for that. From a moral perspective this is defendable and my suspicion that we have more backing for BCH than you can see with your eye by following hash rate charts is now being revealed as true again. But the dilemma BCH has is revealed again as well. we need more of the SHA-256 hash rate cake because we actually do not want that any entity in this space has more than 50% hash power. *** EDIT 2 *** Added Satoshi's quote from the whitepaper.
BREAKING: Mining Without Consent: Burstcoin’s (BURST) PoCC Accused of Attacking Bitcoin HD and Stealing from BURST Miners
https://preview.redd.it/nuzu9peazw621.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf7895b149b13f7a75f3a78de3f3f134c0529666 https://cryptoiq.co/breaking-mining-without-consent-burstcoins-burst-pocc-accused-of-attacking-bitcoin-hd-and-stealing-from-burst-miners/ A group of Burstcoin developers has been accused of merge mining Bitcoin HD without the consent of miners, refusing to give them the Bitcoin HD earned from merge mining, despite using their equipment. The developers say this was done to attack Bitcoin HD. On Dec. 17, the Proof of Capacity Consortium (PoCC), a semi-official group of Burstcoin developers, began to merge mine Bitcoin HD (BHD). This was announced to the public on Dec. 20 — only after a miner posted on Reddit that they were upset about the unannounced merge mining. Reasonable attempts to reach representatives of PoCC for a response to the allegations were unsuccessful. A statement released by PoCC on Dec. 24 said that Bitcoin HD was the specific coin being merge mined. This situation seems unfair for miners and perhaps could be considered theft since most miners were completely unaware that they were merge mining for at least a week. To placate the miners, PoCC made a donation of 150,000 BURST ($600) to the Burstcoin Marketing Fund. It also temporarily waived the negative balances some miners had due to a previous pool error. PoCC acknowledges that merge mining Bitcoin HD increases energy usage by 30 to 50 percent. The PoCC said it will use its pool, which is comprised of the mining power of independent miners, to mine other chains as it deems fit. It indicated that miners will not receive any profits from merge mining Bitcoin HD even though it costs more electricity. “A word on Bitcoin HD,” The PoCC also said in the statement. “… It is a pyramid scheme, it has quite a lot of conceptual and security implications – which many participants seem to know about, yet still do not care ‘as long as the price/quick buck is right.’ This is a mindset we have observed even with long-standing veterans in the Burst community. Because of said pyramid scheme concept (you have to buy in to earn) BHD maintains a price point way beyond a realistic valuation. Greed devours the brain. We are currently interfering with this network to secure our position, which means BHD miners will continue to observe an ever increasing network capacity.” Specifically, the PoCC is saying it is consuming a large fraction of the mining revenue from Bitcoin HD — which weakens the Bitcoin HD mining community — and dumping it for Burstcoin development. The Bitcoin HD (BHD) CoinGecko chart indicates that volume for BHD spiked to near $1 million right before Christmas, well above the average of less than $100,000, and simultaneously with the beginning of a price crash from near $4 to $2.80. That being said, there was similar volume and a similar price crash in early December before PoCC deployed Bitcoin HD merge mining, so it’s not that unusual. Part or most of the pre-Christmas price dump could have been speculators catching wind of the PoCC’s threats and dumping Bitcoin HD. It is not possible that PoCC mined anywhere near $1 million of Bitcoin HD in such a short amount of time. A Bitcoin HD dev responded to the PoCC threats, saying “If some of you continue to attack BHD and do not distribute the earnings from mining BHD to the users, compared with the current capacity, BHD’s 400PB and Burst’s 200PB, … we might attack Burst by the advantage of 51% of the capacity. You should understand what this means.” The PoCC responded “First and foremost, we are not attacking BHD. This is a very serious allegation for which there is no evidence… As we do not attack BHD and according to your own words help to strengthen the BHD network, we are confounded with the threats you formulated. Let it be known that as we do not attack BHD, we certainly would feel any moral right to answer any attack against Burst accordingly”. This response to the Bitcoin HD dev is contrary to the PoCC saying that it is interfering with the Bitcoin HD network in the same Reddit thread. PoCC is not 51 percent attacking the Bitcoin HD network. That’s what they mean when they say they are “not attacking.” In fact, Bitcoin HD has a far greater mining capacity than Burstcoin (BURST), so a PoCC led 51 percent attack is not even possible. However, taking away most of the revenue from the Bitcoin HD mining community and then dumping it all to weaken Bitcoin HD’s price is an attack. The Bitcoin HD dev team has taken the high road to put an end to the PoCC-induced network interference. Instead of a 51 percent attack on Burstcoin, they decided to fork Bitcoin HD on Jan. 3, 2019 to prevent merge mining. To summarize, the PoCC, which is a semi-official Burstcoin development team — but certainly not the only Burstcoin developers — initially began to merge mine Bitcoin HD without permission from the miners in the PoCC pool. PoCC acknowledges that the merge mining was done to divert resources away from the Bitcoin HD mining community to weaken it. Those resources have enriched PoCC, despite the fact that miners on the PoCC pool were unknowingly participating in this scheme and losing money because of it. Now, a significant fraction of the Burstcoin community feels betrayed, and the PoCC has lost reputation and trust. Since Burstcoin is decentralized, it will eventually recover from this, but the weeks and months ahead could be very turbulent as the full details of this merge mining saga are exposed. Ultimately, this could result in a change in Burstcoin (BURST) community leadership.
The Great Bitcoin Bull Market Of 2017 by Trace Mayer
By: Trace Mayer, host of The Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast. Originally posted here with images and Youtube videos. I just got back from a two week vacation without Internet as I was scouring some archeological ruins. I hardly thought about Bitcoin at all because there were so many other interesting things and it would be there when I got back. Jimmy Song suggested I do an article on the current state of Bitcoin. A great suggestion but he is really smart (he worked on Armory after all!) so I better be thorough and accurate! Therefore, this article will be pretty lengthy and meticulous. BACKGROUND As I completely expected, the 2X movement from the New York Agreement that was supposed to happen during the middle of my vacation flopped on its face because Jeff Garzik was driving the clown car with passengers willfully inside like Coinbase, Blockchain.info, Bitgo and Xapo and there were here massive bugS and in the code and miners like Bitmain did not want to allocate $150-350m to get it over the difficulty adjustments. I am very disappointed in their lack of integrity with putting their money where their mouths are; myself and many others wanted to sell a lot of B2X for BTC! On 7 December 2015, with Bitcoin trading at US$388.40, I wrote The Rise of the Fourth Great Bitcoin Bubble. On 4 December 2016, with Bitcoin trading at US$762.97, I did this interview:
As of 26 November 2017, Bitcoin is trading around US$9,250.00. That is an increase of about 2,400% since I wrote the article prognosticating this fourth great Bitcoin bull market. I sure like being right, like usual (19 Dec 2011, 1 Jul 2013), especially when there are financial and economic consequences. With such massive gains in such a short period of time the speculative question becomes: Buy, Hold or Sell? FUNDAMENTALS Bitcoin is the decentralized censorship-resistant Internet Protocol for transferring value over a communications channel. The Bitcoin network can use traditional Internet infrastructure. However, it is even more resilient because it has custom infrastructure including, thanks to Bitcoin Core developer Matt Corrallo, the FIBRE network and, thanks to Blockstream, satellites which reduce the cost of running a full-node anywhere in the world to essentially nothing in terms of money or privacy. Transactions can be cheaply broadcast via SMS messages. SECURITY The Bitcoin network has a difficulty of 1,347,001,430,559 which suggests about 9,642,211 TH/s of custom ASIC hardware deployed. At a retail price of approximately US$105/THs that implies about $650m of custom ASIC hardware deployed (35% discount applied). This custom hardware consumes approximately 30 TWh per year. That could power about 2.8m US households or the entire country of Morocco which has a population of 33.85m. This Bitcoin mining generates approximately 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes or approximately 1,800 per day worth approximately US$16,650,000. Bitcoin currently has a market capitalization greater than $150B which puts it solidly in the top-30 of M1 money stock countries and a 200 day moving average of about $65B which is increasing about $500m per day. Average daily volumes for Bitcoin is around US$5B. That means multi-million dollar positions can be moved into and out of very easily with minimal slippage. When my friend Andreas Antonopolous was unable to give his talk at a CRYPSA event I was invited to fill in and delivered this presentation, impromptu, on the Seven Network Effects of Bitcoin. These seven network effects of Bitcoin are (1) Speculation, (2) Merchants, (3) Consumers, (4) Security [miners], (5) Developers, (6) Financialization and (7) Settlement Currency are all taking root at the same time and in an incredibly intertwined way. With only the first network effect starting to take significant root; Bitcoin is no longer a little experiment of magic Internet money anymore. Bitcoin is monster growing at a tremendous rate!!
SPECULATION For the Bitcoin price to remain at $9,250 it requires approximately US$16,650,000 per day of capital inflow from new hodlers. Bitcoin is both a Giffen good and a Veblen good. A Giffen good is a product that people consume more of as the price rises and vice versa — seemingly in violation of basic laws of demand in microeconomics such as with substitute goods and the income effect. Veblen goods are types of luxury goods for which the quantity demanded increases as the price increases in an apparent contradiction of the law of demand. There are approximately 16.5m bitcoins of which ~4m are lost, ~4-6m are in deep cold storage, ~4m are in cold storage and ~2-4m are salable. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-1.jpg) (http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-2.jpg) And forks like BCash (BCH) should not be scary but instead be looked upon as an opportunity to take more territory on the Bitcoin blockchain by trading the forks for real bitcoins which dries up more salable supply by moving it, likely, into deep cold storage. According to Wikipedia, there are approximately 15.4m millionaires in the United States and about 12m HNWIs ($30m+ net worth) in the world. In other words, if every HNWI in the world wanted to own an entire bitcoin as a 'risk-free asset' that cannot be confiscated, seized or have the balance other wise altered then they could not. For wise portfolio management, these HNWIs should have at least about 2-5% in gold and 0.5-1% in bitcoin. Why? Perhaps some of the 60+ Saudis with 1,700 frozen bank accounts and about $800B of assets being targetted might be able to explain it to you. In other words, everyone loves to chase the rabbit and once they catch it then know that it will not get away. RETAIL There are approximately 150+ significant Bitcoin exchanges worldwide. Kraken, according to the CEO, was adding about 6,000 new funded accounts per day in July 2017. Supposedly, Coinbase is currently adding about 75,000 new accounts per day. Based on some trade secret analytics I have access to; I would estimate Coinbase is adding approximately 17,500 new accounts per day that purchase at least US$100 of Bitcoin. If we assume Coinbase accounts for 8% of new global Bitcoin users who purchase at least $100 of bitcoins (just pulled out of thin error and likely very conservative as the actual number is perhaps around 2%) then that is approximately $21,875,000 of new capital coming into Bitcoin every single day just from retail demand from 218,750 total new accounts. What I have found is that most new users start off buying US$100-500 and then after 3-4 months months they ramp up their capital allocation to $5,000+ if they have the funds available. After all, it takes some time and practical experience to learn how to safely secure one's private keys. To do so, I highly recommendBitcoin Core (network consensus and full validation of the blockchain), Armory (private key management), Glacier Protocol (operational procedures) and a Puri.sm laptop (secure non-specialized hardware). WALL STREET There has been no solution for large financial fiduciaries to invest in Bitcoin. This changed November 2017. LedgerX, whose CEO I interviewed 23 March 2013, began trading as a CFTC regulated Swap Execution Facility and Derivatives Clearing Organization. The CME Group announced they will begin trading in Q4 2017 Bitcoin futures. The CBOE announced they will begin trading Bitcoin futures soon. By analogy, these institutional products are like connecting a major metropolis's water system (US$90.4T and US$2 quadrillion) via a nanoscopic shunt to a tiny blueberry ($150B) that is infinitely expandable. This price discovery could be the most wild thing anyone has ever experienced in financial markets. THE GREAT CREDIT CONTRACTION The same week Bitcoin was released I published my book The Great Credit Contraction and asserted it had now begun and capital would burrow down the liquidity pyramid into safer and more liquid assets. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/Great-Credit-Contraction-Liquidity-Pyramid.jpg) Thus, the critical question becomes: Is Bitcoin a possible solution to the Great Credit Contraction by becoming the safest and most liquid asset? BITCOIN'S RISK PROFILE At all times and in all circumstances gold remains money but, of course, there is always exchange rate risk due to price ratios constantly fluctuating. If the metal is held with a third-party in allocated-allocated storage (safest possible) then there is performance risk (Morgan Stanley gold storage lawsuit). But, if properly held then, there should be no counter-party risk which requires the financial ability of a third-party to perform like with a bank account deposit. And, since gold exists at a single point in space and time therefore it is subject to confiscation or seizure risk. Bitcoin is a completely new asset type. As such, the storage container is nearly empty with only $150B. And every Bitcoin transaction effectively melts down every BTC and recasts it; thus ensuring with 100% accuracy the quantity and quality of the bitcoins. If the transaction is not on the blockchain then it did not happen. This is the strictest regulation possible; by math and cryptography! This new immutable asset, if properly secured, is subject only to exchange rate risk. There does exist the possibility that a software bug may exist that could shut down the network, like what has happened with Ethereum, but the probability is almost nil and getting lower everyday it does not happen. Thus, Bitcoin arguably has a lower risk profile than even gold and is the only blockchain to achieve security, scalability and liquidity. To remain decentralized, censorship-resistant and immutable requires scalability so as many users as possible can run full-nodes. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/ethereum-bitcoin-scability-nov-2017.png) TRANSACTIONS Some people, probably mostly those shilling alt-coins, think Bitcoin has a scalability problem that is so serious it requires a crude hard fork to solve. On the other side of the debate, the Internet protocol and blockchain geniuses assert the scalability issues can, like other Internet Protocols have done, be solved in different layers which are now possible because of Segregated Witness which was activated in August 2017. Whose code do you want to run: the JV benchwarmers or the championship Chicago Bulls? As transaction fees rise, certain use cases of the Bitcoin blockchain are priced out of the market. And as the fees fall then they are economical again. Additionally, as transaction fees rise, certain UTXOs are no longer economically usable thus destroying part of the money supply until fees decline and UTXOs become economical to move. There are approximately 275,000-350,000 transactions per day with transaction fees currently about $2m/day and the 200 DMA is around $1.08m/day. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-transaction-fees-nov-2017.png) What I like about transaction fees is that they somewhat reveal the financial health of the network. The security of the Bitcoin network results from the miners creating solutions to proof of work problems in the Bitcoin protocol and being rewarded from the (1) coinbase reward which is a form of inflation and (2) transaction fees which is a form of usage fee. The higher the transaction fees then the greater implied value the Bitcoin network provides because users are willing to pay more for it. I am highly skeptical of blockchains which have very low transaction fees. By Internet bubble analogy, Pets.com may have millions of page views but I am more interested in EBITDA. DEVELOPERS Bitcoin and blockchain programming is not an easy skill to acquire and master. Most developers who have the skill are also financially independent now and can work on whatever they want. The best of the best work through the Bitcoin Core process. After all, if you are a world class mountain climber then you do not hang out in the MacDonalds play pen but instead climb Mount Everest because that is where the challenge is. However, there are many talented developers who work in other areas besides the protocol. Wallet maintainers, exchange operators, payment processors, etc. all need competent developers to help build their businesses. Consequently, there is a huge shortage of competent developers. This is probably the largest single scalability constraint for the ecosystem. Nevertheless, the Bitcoin ecosystem is healthier than ever before. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-ecosystem.jpg)(/images/bitcoin-ecosystem-small.jpg) SETTLEMENT CURRENCY There are no significant global reserve settlement currency use cases for Bitcoin yet. Perhaps the closest is Blockstream's Strong Federations via Liquid. PRICE There is a tremendous amount of disagreement in the marketplace about the value proposition of Bitcoin. Price discovery for this asset will be intense and likely take many cycles of which this is the fourth. Since the supply is known the exchange rate of Bitcoins is composed of (1) transactional demand and (2) speculative demand. Interestingly, the price elasticity of demand for the transactional demand component is irrelevant to the price. This makes for very interesting dynamics! (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-speculation.jpg) On 4 May 2017, Lightspeed Venture Partners partner Jeremy Liew who was among the early Facebook investors and the first Snapchat investor laid out their case for bitcoin exploding to $500,000 by 2030. On 2 November 2017, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/blankfein-says-don-t-dismiss-bitcoin-while-still-pondering-value)said, "Now we have paper that is just backed by fiat...Maybe in the new world, something gets backed by consensus." On 12 Sep 2017, JP Morgan CEO called Bitcoin a 'fraud' but conceded that "(http://fortune.com/2017/09/12/jamie-dimon-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-fraud-buy/)Bitcoin could reach $100,000". Thus, it is no surprise that the Bitcoin chart looks like a ferret on meth when there are such widely varying opinions on its value proposition. I have been around this space for a long time. In my opinion, those who scoffed at the thought of $1 BTC, $10 BTC (Professor Bitcorn!), $100 BTC, $1,000 BTC are scoffing at $10,000 BTC and will scoff at $100,000 BTC, $1,000,000 BTC and even $10,000,000 BTC. Interestingly, the people who understand it the best seem to think its financial dominance is destiny. Meanwhile, those who understand it the least make emotionally charged, intellectually incoherent bearish arguments. A tremendous example of worldwide cognitive dissonance with regards to sound money, technology and the role or power of the State. Consequently, I like looking at the 200 day moving average to filter out the daily noise and see the long-term trend. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-200dma-nov-2017.png) Well, that chart of the long-term trend is pretty obvious and hard to dispute. Bitcoin is in a massive secular bull market. The 200 day moving average is around $4,001 and rising about $30 per day. So, what do some proforma situations look like where Bitcoin may be undervalued, average valued and overvalued? No, these are not prognostications. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-pro-forma.png) Maybe Jamie Dimon is not so off his rocker after all with a $100,000 price prediction. We are in a very unique period of human history where the collective globe is rethinking what money is and Bitcoin is in the ring battling for complete domination. Is or will it be fit for purpose? As I have said many times before, if Bitcoin is fit for this purpose then this is the largest wealth transfer in the history of the world. CONCLUSION Well, this has been a brief analysis of where I think Bitcoin is at the end of November 2017. The seven network effects are taking root extremely fast and exponentially reinforcing each other. The technological dominance of Bitcoin is unrivaled. The world is rethinking what money is. Even CEOs of the largest banks and partners of the largest VC funds are honing in on Bitcoin's beacon. While no one has a crystal ball; when I look in mine I see Bitcoin's future being very bright. Currently, almost everyone who has bought Bitcoin and hodled is sitting on unrealized gains as measured in fiat currency. That is, after all, what uncharted territory with daily all-time highs do! But perhaps there is a larger lesson to be learned here. Riches are getting increasingly slippery because no one has a reliable defined tool to measure them with. Times like these require incredible amounts of humility and intelligence guided by macro instincts. Perhaps everyone should start keeping books in three numéraires: USD, gold and Bitcoin. Both gold and Bitcoin have never been worth nothing. But USD is a fiat currency and there are thousands of those in the fiat currency graveyard. How low can the world reserve currency go? After all, what is the risk-free asset? And, whatever it is, in The Great Credit Contraction you want it! What do you think? Disagree with some of my arguments or assertions? Please, eviscerate them on Twitter or in the comments!
NOTE: I did not write this article below. I simply copy and pasted the article. Please click the following link to view the entire article. The article includes charts and images which were not transferred to the text below. https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@lennartbedrage/the-ripple-xrp-effect-fundamental-analysis The Ripple(XRP) Effect - Fundamental Analysis: lennartbedrage44 in cryptocurrency ripple.jpg Lately, there’s been a tremendous amount of buzz around Ripple(XRP), but is it only because of the massive growth we’ve seen in the past few 30 days, or is there something more? In this article, I’ll dive into a brief back ground of Ripple, objectively examine the arguments for and against it, explore its potential from a economic standpoint, then close with potential threats to your investment and a summary. Meet Ripple(XRP)- Released in 2012, Ripple aims to enable “secure, instant and nearly free global financial transactions of any size with no chargebacks” through their real-time gross settlement system (RTGS) and currency exchange and remittance network. Ripples distributed open-source internet protocol consensus ledger was created as basic technology for interbank and regulated financial institutions to integrate Ripple into their own systems. This differs from the Bitcoin full node and other crowdsourced altcoin consensus networks in several ways: Ripples common shared ledger is a network of independent validating servers which compare their transaction records, rather than the full network of nodes coming to consensus prior to each transaction, enabling faster transaction speeds. Although their protocol is open source, it was not created as a plug & play solution, like bitcoins full-node software, nor does it rely on crowd-sourced support. Unlike Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, and other Alt-coins, Ripple is recognized as legal tender by several governments, which gives it instant liquidity via financial institution, as well as purchasing power over material goods. Because of this, it cannot be evaluated in the same ways as other coins, which are largely evaluated based on assumptions & speculation. In terms of value, it’s more like cash than a commodity. Because of this, it is evaluated in a much different way than Ethereum(ETH) and other alt-coins with intrinsic value, but is accepted much more rapidly because it’s easy for the mass-market to understand. Remember: without market acceptance, there is not value, regardless of how innovative something may be. Just 4 short years after its release, on 01MAY17, Ripple announced that a consortium of 47 banks have successfully completed a pilot implementation of Ripple in Japan, making it the first country in the world to enable domestic and international real time money transfers via the cryptocurrency. This event lead the XRP value to sky-rocket from $0.051580 USD to an all-time high of $0.430085 in just 16 days… but why? Is it 100% speculation, or is there something else going on here? “It’s not a real cryptocurrency!” Or is it? Well, those whom bring this argument to the table are probably referencing facts that I’ve mention during my introduction to Ripple: Its a centralized and regulated crypto-currency which does not need global consensus for transfers, and it is built specifically for (and potentially by) financial institutions. Though a lot of the Anarcho-Capitalists may want to steer clear of this one due to its highly regulated nature, regular capitalist may believe these core differences to be its greatest strengths: Regulated - As I mentioned in my analysis on Ethereum(ETH), Bitcoin’s lack of regulation was likely he reason (or at least, that’s what they told us) that the proposed ETF failed to pass the SEC’s evaluation several months ago. If adhering to some sort of trusted regulatory standards, this could drive federal confidence, which in turn drive bank and lending institution faith…trickling all the way down to the consumers. This insures rapid mass market acceptance. Consensus - As mentioned before this is much different process than Bitcoin’s global consensus, which means that transaction times are nearly instant regardless of volume transferred. Additionally, all transfers adhere to distributive ledgers DLT standards, which is a requirement for many financial institutions to be insurable. Institutional Management - You’ve probably guessed this one already. Although the demand and speculative value is driven at some capacity by ‘the people’, this currency is about as close to the World bank and SWIFT as you can get. This is largely due to the amount Deliberate - It feels like a big bank, because it is. Ripple was built specifically for the financial markets, which is why they specifically targeted regulatory compliance. shutterstock_289877267_long_read_cover_large.jpg Economic Value As mentioned in the last point, Its easy to see that Ripple offers tremendous value to financial-institutions and retail investors. These two groups make up 358 billion (numbers from 2013) non-cash cross-country annual transactions, and the FOREX market which sees more than $5.1 trillion $USD each day. Per a report released by Capgemini and The Royal Bank of Scotland, this is growing at an average rate of about 7.5% each year globally, though China and other Emerging Asian economies have been leading the charge at around 21%. Seems like a lot, right? Well, for sake of uncovering the immediate value of XRP, we will zoom into the recent adopters of the distributed ledger technology: Japan, India, and the Central Europe, Middle East & Africa(CEMEA) regions. Japan.jpg Japan is the third largest economy in the world by nominal GDP ($6.11 trillion), fourth by purchasing power parity(PPP) and second largest developed economy. Currently, their GDP per capita is roughly $48,412 (vs $56,430 in US) and their major trade partners include the US, China, Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea. Japan GDP.png Aside from the speculation that they maybe soon pressure their trade partners (excluding the US and China) to adopt a system which allows for instant, near free transfers of funds, here’s where it gets interesting for the immediate future: Japan has already started accepting Ripple(XRP) as legal tender. If Ripple raises to just 25% of the overall transaction volume of P2P, P2B & B2B within Japan itself (represented in the chart by Other Services, Real Estate, Retail, Transport, Communications, Finance & Utilities) which is equal to about 20% of their overall economy, Ripple would be handling roughly $1.27 trillion USD in Japan – alone - every year. To put that in perspective, the current (at the time of writing) market capitalization of Bitcoin(BTC) is $30.7 billion USD (or >0.4%). Unlike Bitcoin, Ripple is legal tender which means that it can be exchanged for material goods and services, which means that it’s likely to have explosive acceptance in the local area. India.jpg India-based Axis Bank announced in April that they will soon begin leveraging distributed ledger tech for cross-border transactions and to make banking simple and convenient for their customers. About 15 days’ prior, another large financial institution, Yes Bank, also announced that they would be adopting Ripples ledger for the same reasons. If Ripple continues to grow in acceptance at this rate in India, we could see another economy, roughly 1/3 the size of Japan’s ($2.074 trillion USD) add to Ripples annual transaction value. Now, from an economic stand point, this is most interesting because agriculture represents more than 50% of India’s employment, which means that India would be the 2nd case of consumer trading Ripple for staple foods. India GDP.png It is likely that Ripple will not handle as large of a percentage of overall transaction volumes in India because only two major banks have adopted this currency and it is not the only Crypto. The latter is probably one of the most important variables, as this means that Ripple will be duking it out for market dominancy. As all of my projections are fairly conservative, I would estimate that Ripple will handle roughly 10% of India’s over all transaction volume in the next 365 days, equal to roughly $311.1 billion USD. One last thing that I would like to mention is that India is literally the ‘I’ in BRIC and roughly 13% of the BRIC countries total output. If the BRIC comes to fruition, India may be able to convince it’s other close trade partners to jump on the XRP-Train as well. Dubai.jpg Abu Dhabi Bank, the National and largest bank of the UAE, has already begun offering cross-border transaction services with Ripples distributive ledger technology as well. As they deal extensively with their middle eastern neighbors, such as Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, the UAE is likely to set a trend for other CEMEA countries to follow. UAE GDP.png This might be a surprise to some people, but Dubai’s largest industry is the energy sector (shocker!) followed closely by Real Estate and their Finance industry (double shocker!). Although their GPD is much smaller than Japan and India’s (about $370 billion USD), I am anticipating Ripple to handle a larger percent of the UAE’s transaction volume (31.11%), especially in the finance, Real Estate, Retail and Logistics industries. This is due largely to the fact that their population is only roughly 9.157 million, but most Abu Dhabi nationals are very financially inclined (or at least heavy spenders). Potential Threats As this threatens SWIFT (unless they are completely on board) and the US dollars’ supremacy in the economic & financial markets, I would not be surprised to see a false flag attack, in which the NSA attacks Ripple and blames it on North Korea or China. Frankly, this would be a cake walk compared to Stuxnet or WannaCry and they could probably hand the task to an MIT intern. Where semi-centralization is Ripples strength in terms of transaction speed and regulation, it is also the biggest security flaw and may open it’s user to some heart ache, hair loss and heavy drinking over the next several years. Possibility So, what is possible in terms of value over the next few years? Well, if we consider the following scenario: XRP accounts for roughly 20% of Japan, India full GDP, but 31.1% UAE’s GDP ($7.152 Trillion USD) total exchange volume in the next 2 years Max XRP Supply stays at 100 billion No other countries adopt XRP (not likely) No hacks or other catastrophic events remove confidence Exclude speculation, demand, rallies, and GDP growth projections for each country Then we’re looking at each Ripple(XRP) market capitalization over ~$1.75 Trillion USD, making each coin $17.52 in real value. This means that if you were to invest today at $0.362794, your ROI would be about 4,989%. That said, I think that it’s likely it will go over $30 in the next 2 years, due to speculators flooding the markets and other countries signing up. Again, these are conservative numbers are based on total transaction value in USD equivalent. For those whom subscribe, I will update as new variables are available to my appraisal Bottom Line Although it was most definitely created by an insider of the banking industry and does not ‘feel like a crypto’, I personally feel that due to its rapid market acceptance, liquidity and position as legal tender in 3 large economies, Ripple(XRP) is both primed for explosive growth in the near future and likely to be one of the safest value based Crypto-investments we can make today. Another thing, China is the anchor of the West Pacific, so we should all watch their evaluation of Ripple, very closely. If they were to jump on the XRP-Train, you are likely to see Australia, South Korea, Indonesia and Singapore do the same. If you enjoyed this article, be sure to share & subscribe, as I have kept my proprietary models and will update as major events and additional countries begin to adopt this currency. If you feel that I have missed something or am just flat out wrong, please be sure to let me know in the comments below! Planned articles for the next 14 days: ICO advice from a Venture Capitalist (Follower Request) Paper Wallets (Follower Request) VIVA Analysis (Follower Request) Segregated Witness(Segwit) : Friend or Foe? A Kraken ate my gains... Fundamental Analysis: Stellar Lumens(XLM) Dual-Citizenship and Banking in Panama Rich vs. Wealthy All analysis, numbers and projections are my own. Core information was gathered from reliable sources, such as the World Bank, IMF, CIA world fact book, eia.gov and more.
Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191115(Market index 38 — Fear state)
https://preview.redd.it/8ufge33d7vy31.jpg?width=4160&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=524235b7407d07a68dd1d67463ee8bcc89d14e71 Shanghai Issues Notice To Launch A ‘Crackdown’ On Virtual Currency ActivityAccording to the report of 10jqka, China’s Internet Financial Risk Special Rectification Work Leadership Team Office and Shanghai Financial Services Office jointly issued a notice on Nov 14, saying that they will investigate and crackdown on virtual currency-related activities, which will be finished before November 22. This news has now been confirmed by ThePaper.cn, an online media start-up backed by the Shanghai United Media Group.The promotion of blockchain in China inevitably “gives virtual currencies-related illegal activities a leg up” after President XI Jinping personally endorsed the promising technology. According to the notice, the move is to prevent the speculation on virtual currencies which has seen a rising momentum relying on the recent promotion of blockchain technology. It focuses on three unlawful activities: organizing virtual currency transactions in China; issuing virtual currencies under the guise of application scenarios for blockchain; providing publicity, agent trading and other services for ICO projects and virtual currency trading platforms registered abroad.The notice made it clear that the Internet enterprises will be immediately reported to the Internet Financial Risk Special Rectification Work Leadership Team Office and the People’s Bank of China, headquartered in Shanghai, once they involve in those activities mentioned above.As earlier reported by CoinNess, the Weibo account of TRON and Binance has been blocked. It seems that China is further imposing controls on cryptocurrencies. JPMorgan Automates Derivatives Margin Payments With Blockchain TechMajor global investment bank JPMorgan has developed a new blockchain-based solution for derivatives designed to speed up cash and collateral transfers. The tool was developed in partnership with California-based fintech firm Baton Systems and aims to enable the real-time movement of transfers to multiple clearinghouses, the firm announced on Nov. 14. YouTuber Claims That Bakkt Is Wall Street’s Attack On BitcoinIn a recently-posted YouTuber video titled “Bakkt is BAD for BITCOIN! Exposing the Wall St. Attack,” the YouTuber highlights several peculiarities about the ICE-backed futures exchange and custody solution. The most notable of these relate to the actual process of taking delivery of the “physical” Bitcoin from the “physically-settled” Bitcoin futures contracts. https://preview.redd.it/bmr1e5967vy31.png?width=504&format=png&auto=webp&s=77b17e850ffd3a805203d685fae3516dbb0c00b9 After trading to a new monthly low at $8,457, bitcoin started an upside correction against the US Dollar. BTC climbed above the $8,550 and $8,600 resistance levels to start the current correction. Moreover, there was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $8,785 high to $8,457 low. Finally, there was a spike above the $8,650 resistance area. However, the upward move was capped by the $8,700 resistance the 100 hourly simple moving average. More importantly, morning’s major declining channel is preventing gains near $8,705 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Besides, it seems like the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $8,785 high to $8,457 low is also acting as a strong resistance. Review previous articles:https://email@example.com
Encrypted project calendar（November 15, 2019）
TRON (TRX):15 November 2019 Cross-chain Project “The #TRON cross-chain project will be available on Nov. 15th”Bluzelle (BLZ):15 November 2019 (or earlier) CURIE Release CURIE release expected by early November 2019.Zebi (ZCO):15 November 2019 ZEBI Token Swap Ends “… We will give 90 days to all the ERC 20 token holders to swap out their tokens into Zebi coins.”OKB (OKB):15 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Vilnius “Join us for a meetup on 15 Nov (Fri) for our 1st ever Talks in Vilnius, Lithuania.”Zenon (ZNN):15 November 2019 Awareness Fund Payout “Distribution of the fund takes place every Friday until Pillars Lock-in Phase is completed.”Fantom (FTM):15 November 2019 Telegram AMA “Join our CMO@CryptoMHchnand technical advisor@AndreCronjeTechon the 15th of November for thoughts about the direction of Fantom…”
Encrypted project calendar（November 16, 2019）
Bancor (BNT):and 2 others 16 November 2019 Crypto DeFiance-Singapore “Crypto DeFiance is a new global DeFi event embracing established innovators, financial market disruptors, DApp developers…”NEM (XEM):16 November 2019 Developer’s Event “BLOCKCHAIN: Creation of Multifirma services” from 10:50 AM — 2 PM.PCHAIN (PI):16 November 2019 (or earlier) New Website “New website will launch this week.”EDC Blockchain (EDC):16 November 2019 Opening Meeting “The new official EDC Blockchain representative office opens for you in Ankara! We are waiting for you at the opening meeting…”
Encrypted project calendar（November 17, 2019）
OKB (OKB):17 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Lagos Join us on 17 Nov for another OKEx Talks, discussing the “Life of a Crypto Trader”.BitCash (BITC):17 November 2019 BitCash Gold Hard Fork We will introduce a third currency on the BitCash blockchain with BitCash Gold. BitCash Gold is pegged to the price of gold.EDC Blockchain (EDC):17 November 2019 Blockchain Seminar “On November 17th, 2019, we invite you to visit the EDC Blockchain seminar in Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia. “
Encrypted project calendar（November 18, 2019）
Maker (MKR):18 November 2019 MCD Launch “BIG changes to terminology are coming with the launch of MCD on Nov. 18th Say hello to Vaults, Dai, and Sai.”Vexanium (VEX):18 November 2019 Nodes Blockchain Summit Vexanium will collaborate with Nodes Community to hold a blockchain conference called the Nodes Blockchain Summit.OKB (OKB):18 November 2019 Utrecht Workshop “EVENT: We’re going back to basics with #101 workshops on #CryptoTrading in Utrecht & AmsterdamSantiment Network Token (SAN):18 November 2019 Reddit AMA “…@Santimentfeedwill be conducting its first Reddit AMA on the@EthfinanceRsubreddit on Monday, November 18, 2019 from 12pm to 3pm EST”.Decentralized Currency Assets (DCA):18 November 2019 Added to Echoestrader “Decentralize Currency Assets(DCA) support’s the first crypto algorithm exchange goes live on november 18th 2019.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 19, 2019）
Lisk (LSK):19 November 2019 Lisk.js “We are excited to announce liskjs2019 will take place on November 19th. This all day blockchain event will include…”Aion (AION):19 November 2019 Hard Fork “Leading up to the hard fork on November 19th-20th, 2019 the Unity — Aion Kernel will be upgraded by node operators.”Enigma (ENG):19 November 2019 Open Community Call The first Enigma Open Community Call is Tuesday, Nov 19th, 11AM ET! important updates on our protocol, the Genesis Game, and our road ahead.
Encrypted project calendar（November 20, 2019）
OKB (OKB):20 November 2019 OKEx Cryptour Odessa Ukr “Join us in Odessa as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!DAPS Token (DAPS):20 November 2019 Partnership with SWFT “Everyone will have $DAPS mobile wallets, atomic swaps and much more starting on the 20th of November!”Aragon (ANT):20 November 2019 Draft Proposal Deadline “Draft proposals for Aragon Network Vote #5 are due in one week, on November 20 at 16:00 UTC…”
Encrypted project calendar（November 21, 2019）
Cardano (ADA):and 2 others 21 November 2019 Meetup Netherlands (AMS) “This meetup is all about how to decentralize a blockchain, the problems and differences between Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake…”Cappasity (CAPP):21 November 2019 Virtuality Paris 2019 “Cappasity to demonstrate its solution for the interactive shopping experience at Virtuality Paris 2019.”Horizen (ZEN):21 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.OKB (OKB):21 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Johannesburg “Join us the largest city of South Africa — Johannesburg where we will host our OKEx Talks on the 21st Nov.”IOST (IOST):22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key tech.OKB (OKB):22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “
Encrypted project calendar（November 22, 2019）
IOST (IOST):22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key techOKB (OKB):22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “
Encrypted project calendar（November 23, 2019）
Californium (CF)and 1 other: 23 November 2019 Greece Meetup “On November 23, the Greek #Cryptocurrency Community Meetup will take place in Greece!”
Encrypted project calendar（November 25, 2019）
0x (ZRX):25 November 2019 0x V3 Proposal Live “The 0x v3 proposal was approved and will go live on Ethereum mainnet starting November 25th!”Dynamic Trading Rights (DTR):25 November 2019 Chain Migration “On November 25 at 23:00 CET, TokensNet will make a migration of the $ELI token from Ethereum blockchain to Bitcoin Cash blockchain…”
Encrypted project calendar（November 27, 2019）
OKB (OKB):27 November 2019 OKEx Cryptour Vinnytsia “Join us in Vinnytsia as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!”Fetch.ai (FET):27 November 2019 London Meetup “Join us on 27 November@primalbasehqto hear an exciting progress report as we prepare for the launch of our #mainnet”
Encrypted project calendar（November 28, 2019）
Horizen (ZEN):28 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.
Encrypted project calendar（November 29, 2019）
Zenon (ZNN):29 November 2019 Awareness Fund Payout “Distribution of the fund takes place every Friday until Pillars Lock-in Phase is completed.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 30, 2019）
Ethos (ETHOS):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Rebranding “In November, we unveil the broker token, a dynamic utility token to power our commission-free crypto trading and broker platform, Voyager.”Digitex Futures (DGTX):30 November 2019 Public Testnet Launch “…We can expect to see the world’s first zero-commission futures trading platform live on the Ethereum public testnet from 30th November.”Monero (XMR):30 November 2019 Protocol Upgrade “Preliminary information thread regarding the scheduled protocol upgrade of November 30.”Chiliz (CHZ):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Fiat to CHZ Exchanges “We will add another two fiat to $CHZ exchanges in November…”Skrumble Network (SKM):30 November 2019 (or earlier) P2P & Group Calling “P2P & Group Video Calling,” during November 2019.Aergo (AERGO):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mainnet 2.0 Upgrade Mainnet 2.0 Protocol update by end of November.Akropolis (AKRO):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Beta Release “All functionality has been deployed to mainnet.”Nash Exchange (NEX):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mobile Strategy Phase 2 “Phase 2 of our mobile strategy will be live soon with our wallet and portfolio app hitting stores in November!”Akropolis (AKRO):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Beta Release “All functionality has been deployed to mainnet.”
I'm just going to come out and say it: due to my research I have come to the rather obvious, in hindsight, conclusion that Marketcap and by extension cryptocurrency exchanges are perpetuating a massive fraud on the entire space. This fraud began years ago during the rise of the first exchanges and was most likely deliberate. To save you time, the solution is to switch tousing fair value instead. By using fair value, all of the issues listed go away. I have written a couple times about it, and you can read that if you like here. I'm not the only one who's noticed Mkt cap is off either, others have also seen through the mirage. In short, the data you see on CMC is manipulated and wrong. There are four major issues that come from relying on exchanges and their pricing data to evaluate the market.
Exchanges price the entire market in BTC
Exchange data/CMC does not take into account the difference between the supplies of various coins
Average prices come from very low-liquidity exchanges, which makes the average easy to 'move' by artificial volume
Exchanges don't make their trades on chain unless sending or receiving. So all your trades are just ledger entries like a bank.
Why is this such a problem? It doesn't seem like it would be until you realize that they are using the same manufactured events to justify artificially lowering the price and keeping it down. Example, on Nov. 15, CSW began carrying out his promise to destroy all POW chains. What a bold promise. How could something like this be accomplished? All the chains have different algos (except BTC and BCH, ETH and ETC, Dash its forks like PIVX etc.) so how could such a feat be possible? Clearly he was mad and we laughed it off. Until you realize that his little 'hash war' was just theexcuseused toremovetens of billions of dollars from Crypto valuations. Since the fiat-crypto exchange rate is set by these valuations, he was basically telling you he is connected to those who have the desire and power to destroy cryptos. What am I talking about? We can see from bitcoin's fair value, currently $8,069.58 compared to an exchange price of $3,608.78, that the market has seemingly 'lost investment'. But in fact, since Nov 15 the amount of investment into BTC has skyrocketed! BTC's fair value and price last crossed (indicating that speculation had been removed according to the theory) on Nov 14th, then the price went south and the fair value went north! People have been buying and hodling BTC AND NOBODY EVEN KNEW IT! How? Because Coinmarketcap.comand exchanges are perpetuating a massive fraud on the economy. It would be like doing your taxes and saying your gold bars worth $100k were actually only wroth $10 k. You could provide 'reports' to this effect. But any real assaying will show the true amount, and thus value, of your gold hodlings. Fair value is a 'true assaying' of the cryptocurrency economy. Coinmarketcap and average exchange price allows whales, i.e. govts and subversive, destructive elements, like Calvin Ayre and CSW,the ability to artificially control the price and affect sentiment. So even though fair value theory dictates that once speculation is removed price and fair value should match, if they manage to artificially control sentiment, they can indirectly lower the fair value over time and destroy the new, free economy! Again, looking at bitcoin's chart, you can clearly see that the second run up of 2017 WAS FAKE! You can also see that the slow bleed downward for 2018 was also fake! Malicious whales are manipulating the price to control sentiment and make you think cryptos are less popular than they are. This is most likely how Charlie Lee knew when to sell. If you're connected to these whales, you will obviously know when their movements are going to be made before everyone else. This is possible due to 'price' being a simple average in a very low liquidity market. This causes you to undervalue good projects, and overvalue bad ones. Dash's current price is only $79, but its fair value has been over $200 formonths now! BCH has a fair value of $392.16 with a mere price of $122.35. This is possible because, again, exchanges and cmc are not giving you accurate information deliberately. Fair value uses on-chain metrics in order to price coins, so you are getting the actual barter-value that people are trading at with it. Price is, again, easy to manipulate. We've seen over 1 year of solid price manipulation now. The longer we ignore it, the more likely they will use fabricated events likethis oneto destroy cryptocurrencies! It's all fun and games to suggest BTC core should lower the blocksize, until you realize that all cryptos are priced in BTC so any bad price action there will decimate the whole valuation of the entire market! This is designed to appear accidental, but it is in fact by design and an attack. The only way it would be good to goad BTC core on like that, would be if we were using independent valuation metrics for each coin, s.t. the price of BTC was independent from the price of BCH, Dash, ZEC etc. But its not! So just like the Nov 15th hashwar, such a move would artificially lower the valuation of the entire market!! TREAD CAREFULLY!!! Again, we ignore this at our own financial peril. Basically, our opponents arecheatingand artificially undervaluing our assets using this manipulation. Usually, when making the switch between tools/theories, the new theory must not only provide the same level of information and accuracy as the original, but it also must exceed it. Fair value has shown to be a stronger predictor of actual user sentiment than price has. If it were not for the fake hash war, all crypto valuations would be much higher now like they were on Nov 14th. The bad news is that this is a very powerful weapon for now, the good news is that this is the final boss. Once we're free from coinmarketcap and exchange pricing, there will be no way for them to centralize other chokepoints and manipulate the valuations.
I recorded every 80%+ crypto-call that CND made since February 5, 2018. 35% success rate (~17/26 failure rate)
Update:I spoke to some members in the Telegram chat, and of the 33 signals that are above 80% since Q2 2018 until now, 13 signals hit i.e. an accuracy of 39% (4% higher than the 35% I stated) other indicator % range as well. People were trying to say I was a fraud, or misleading – but as I said it was around 35-40% pass rate in my previous comments. In other words, CND has utterly failed since the beginning of the bear market. After being attacked by rexovas who appears to be some sort of community shill and accusing me of being a fraud, I got muted from the telegram for "posting an image" (of a chart teaching them about how to interpret a chart) LOL. I guess anything that isn't glowing shouldn't be said then, eh ;) ? When they have nothing against you – they look for the smallest/trivial excuse to censor. But proof speaks for itself. I am not allowed to post the previous signals made from CND conveniently because of Terms of Service issues, but for anyone interested, I can also forward anyone authenticated results for proof. In my opinion, there is an incentive to not be able to post old calls under the TOS - one reason I speculate is because they are mostly bad. To anyone who has CND Expert or Trader – feel free to double check my results as well – just ignore the calls that are not crypto-related as I ignored calls that were not directly crypto-related i.e. political issue votes, employment predictions, or other random issues that no one frankly cares about. I switched between CND Expert & Trader for a short period, but overall, the 80%+ confidence calls had a 35% success rate starting from February 5, 2018. Of the 26 calls I counted that were 80%+ odds of being "very safe" – 17 failed, 9 passed. The reason why 80%+ is an important metric is because A) it's generally seen as a high confidence/high probability trade, as well as B) Cindicator states "80%-100% is a very high probability indicator; the probability for the event to happen is very high." So I can confidently state that the "very high confidence" calls Cindicator have been making haven't only been wrong often, it has been egregiously wrong throughout the bear market post-December 2017. While CND making good trades in the bull market was ok, it wasn't really that great compared to the gains an average trader in the bull market could do. After all, the coins keep going up, and if you make a bad trade, all you had to do was hold for it to go up more. The bear market, after all, is where real skill and talent shines. I also noticed that due to the calls being wildly off in February 2018 - Cindicator started asking questions that were safemore conservative presumably to get more questions right. Going from asking questions like: "Will X coin go up 10% in 3 weeks" more to now asking "Will X coin go up 3% before going down 10% in a month." In other words, if one frames the question properly, it is not difficult to improve the odds of getting the question answered correctly. Again, since I am not allowed to publish this data on here - I cannot show what I mean, but other CND stakeholders can discuss what I am talking about to confirm what I am saying. In any case, I found that one is better off flipping a coin, statistically speaking than the relying on high probability/confidence CND calls (since no one is interested in low probability calls for buying into). Although, to be frank, as someone who is an average trader at best, I found it easier to make money simply trading the last several months rather than using CND signals at all. If I had used CND signals exclusively, I would have almost certainly lost my money from the beginning of the bear market to now. Furthermore, in a previous post I mentioned how CND's "top" forecasters stated that BTC will hit very close $40k by end of 2018 – so far I'm inclined to believe that anything CND signals, it will do the opposite of – so it does have utility I suppose as a contrarian indicator. Now someone else mentioned today: "To be honest having 100k "analysts" is not a problem as long as the AI/ML is doing the job to purge it but it doesn't. In the end when you try to use Cindicator you've got A LOT of neutral indicators which is completely useless you won't trade on these. And if you try to follow strong indicators >70% <30% you end up with a lot of failed indicators. Just today a BTC indicator was wrong again. And there is more, sometimes you will have a significant bullish/bearish indicator and an other saying the opposite the next day. The ICO reviews that CND posts are garbage – the ranking feels like a lottery and most of the time it's about tokens/ico no one cares or ever heard of." So Cindicator team needs to post an update from the beginning of the bear market to now showing the success of each bracket (i.e. 0-20, 20-35, 35-45, 45-55, 55-65, 65-80, 80-100). But so far the unpublished results have been awful (and I don't mean to be harsh as I AM an investor, but I didn't spend so much money for a token that would fail/disappoint this much). Summary: Cindicator calls that were crypto-coin related going back to February 5, 2018, that were high probability were terrible. The calls cannot be trusted in this market. Cindicator team's approach appears to be fundamentally flawed if the signals are this consistently bad, and needs to do a lot of new work and an overhaul for high probability trades (80%+) to be reliable. Edit: Their reports are misleading to say the least, and they manipulate/frame the questions in such a way to portray it as more accurate than it really is. From: https://medium.com/cindicatohybrid-intelligence-generates-annual-return-of-166-in-bitcoin-d2f8a5e8f0bb They conveniently hide information that show their signals are blatantly and overwhelmingly wrong from Jan/Feb 2018, and then try to spin it by posting results from experiment that lack a proper control. This may fool someone who is statistically illiterate, but it's statistics 101, where everyone knows that these results are meaningless if you cannot compare them towards a control group of traders. If they wanted to be honest they'd have performed the study with a randomized group (n=45) using CND signals that could work as a group, and another group (n=45) working as a control group (no CND signal access). Not to mention the time frame they used was 8 weeks, and they try to extrapolate that a 16.37% return would lead to a 166% annualized return from that ("Together, the 45 traders achieved a cumulative return of 16.26%; over the period, or a 166% annualised return in Bitcoin, i.e. 2.66x. Together, the 45 traders achieved a cumulative return of 16.26% over the period, or a 166%; annualised return in Bitcoin, i.e. 2.66x.). In other words, that's like me saying I got a 5% return in a week, and therefore a ~1,000% in a year if I extrapolate that far out... Of course they then (falsely) claim, "Within six months of the launch of Cindicator’s analytical product the experiment validated Hybrid Intelligence as a profitable tool for trading and investing in the highly volatile crypto markets." CND's official response is that it is not to be used as a signal service, but more for support, but then it posts a report that misleadingly extrapolates a 166%; return in the long run from 8 weeks, as well as unfairly comparing it to merely a top 10 private index fund (of course there's so many issues with this claim seeing as one can trade a number of smaller cap alts for bigger profits, for instance, or the short time span that the study was conducted, or the lack of a proper control group). The statistical washing reminds me of saying: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics" by British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli. They know the signal service has mostly been wrong since January 2018 and are shying towards saying it is a "support" tool as well as overstating the returns it can get – but CND compares itself to Renaissance Medallion fund which has consistently beaten the market YOY even through bear markets. In other words, if all CND wants to be is a support tool where the calls it makes are contrarian indicators that are mostly wrong, then the CND token price will be worth nothing significant, and they know it. Perhaps they should implement some real TA-based strategies since it appears CND uses no TA for its calculations, or hire some Wall Street HFT guys perhaps to figure out how to improve the signal in a bear market, or it will certainly spell trouble for CND investors...
This idea is not meant to be primarily technical, but a more fundamental analysis to elaborate why the ongoing attempt to use Ethereum Classic (ETC) as a tool to execute a "speculative attack" on Ethereum (ETH) cannot possibly succeed ever! To keep things simple, the underlying market mechanism of a "speculative attack" can be described as following. The Chinese tanks on Hong Kong’s border are being met with a new modern weapon, an attempted speculative attack on the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD). That currency is pegged to USD with an upper range of 7.85 HKD to the dollar. Rumors however are circulating this peg will be breached as CNY devalues. It’s not about the protest, some Hong Kongers say on online social media, it’s about financial ... Bitcoin Speculative Attack - Bitcoin Debit Cards Available In The Us Bitcoin Speculative Attack Bitcoin Core Hd Wallet Steam Games Bitcoin Bitcoin Trading Guide for Intermediate Crypto Traders This bitcoin chart analysis guide is built to be your one-stop-shop tutorial for intermediate crypto trading. Crypto trading seems complicated at first glance. Fortunately, it’s not nearly as perplexing as you think. Once you learn how to read charts and perform basic technical analysis, it all starts to... Bitcoin has been moving sideways for many, many weeks. In the meantime precious metals and stock markets rallied significantly. As well, DeFi has been exploding over the last two months. Hence, Bitcoin and Ethereum look poised to start a catch up rally rather very soon. Bitcoin has likely started the next attack on US$10,000.
CymaBay Therapeutics, Inc. - CBAY Stock Chart Technical Analysis for 01-30-2020
Bitcoin - Chart Technical Analysis for 12-08-17 Subscribe to My MAIN Channel Here: https://www.youtube.com/claytrader/ Free Guide - The 5 Tools I Use To Find... CymaBay Therapeutics, Inc. - CBAY Stock Chart Technical Analysis for 01-30-2020 Subscribe to My MAIN Channel Here: https://www.youtube.com/claytrader/ Free W... These are only my own personal and speculative opinions, ideas, theories, hypotheses, charts, technical analysis (TA), insights, curated news publications and price prediction(s). The technical ... Bitcoin Chart Technical Analysis for 01-29-2020 ... Investing/trading in securities is highly speculative and carries an extremely high degree of risk. Category People & Blogs; Show more Show less ... This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue